Introduction
This hand-operated is written to recommend on an coming to managing risk, with regards to procedures to succeed in conducting risk analyses and treatment.
Variable Frequency Drive
Background of my Organisation
I will focus my concentration on the management of risks for my enterprise in general. My enterprise is complex in the trading of steel products, generally for building purposes, as well as the sales and purchases of agricultural products such as beans, maize and rice. With regards to these products, letters of credit (Lcs) have to be initiated usually for such products to be sold overseas. As part of the accounting and finance function, my responsibilities are not only in the permissible accounting treatment of such transactions, but also as part of the team complex in a new trade financing scheme to ensure the plane flow of these transactions from the occasion of Lcs, the financing as well as the delivery of these products. Such a flow will involve the cooperation of both the operations and the accounting and finance departments.
Purpose of Risk Management
Business risk relates to exposure to determined events that will have a negative impact on the strategies and objectives of the company. Hence enterprise risk is due to two factors: the probability of an event occurring as well as the seriousness of the consequences (Bowden, Lane and Martin, 2001). There are several risks that are more exact to my organization, and are shown as follows:
1. Strategic risk, such as poor marketing strategy and poor acquisition strategy, as a succeed of poor planning (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Poor marketing and acquisition of separate grades of steel and agricultural products can prove the downfall of the organization.
2. Financial risk, such as lack of credit appraisal and poor receivables and list management, as a succeed of poor financial operate (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Inadequate credit appraisal of possible trade and other debtors as well as low debtors' turnover can be a poor reflection of the company's strategy and objectives.
3. Operational risk, such as poor practices and routine actions, as a succeed of poor human actions (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Non-conformity to the organization's safe practices or even willful actions by employees can originate possible operational and financial losses to the company.
4. Technical risk, such as tool and infrastructure breakdown and fire destruction, as a succeed of failure of bodily assets (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Such risks can be prevalent in my club if standard actions are not taken to prevent these technicalities. Unfortunately, many organizations tend to focus too much on the execution and cost dimensions of technical risk and conduct them too heavily (Smith and Reinertsen, year unknown).
5. Market risk, such as inadequate shop research, which is the risk of not meeting the needs of the market, assuming that the specification has been satisfied (Smith and Reinertsen, year unknown). This risk may be more leading compared to others, any way it is less manageable due to the risk being less objective and quantifiable compared to say technical risk
As a succeed of such risks mentioned above, coupled with the advancement in technology and competing pressures, risk management has taken a more leading role in the existence of businesses today (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Risk management relates to the logical and systematic way of establishing context, identifying risks, analyzing risks, evaluating risks and lastly, treating risks. This coming also involves communicating and consulting the findings as well as monitoring and reviewing the treatment of risks. This coming to managing risks is known as the As 4360 method (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
Risk Management
Step 1: Definition of Context
This relates to the making ready of context in terms of strategic, organizational and risk management (Bowden et. Al, 2001). The strategic context is involved with the connection between the club and its parameters in terms of financial, operational, competing and communal context (Bowden et. Al, 2001). In the case of my organization, we are involved with our financial objectives (i.e. Sales turnover of Us million with a profit margin of at least 12% annually), products with high quality and good buyer satisfaction, as well as good shop position (one of the top suppliers of steel in the regional building industry). The strategic context also requires the club to recognize the stakeholders, which includes the owners, employees, customers, suppliers as well as the local community (Bowden et. Al, 2001). In increasing to that, my club will have to be accountable to our shareholders and the media as well, since we are a local listed company.
The organizational context will be involved with wider goals, objectives and strategies of the enterprise as a whole (Bowden et. Al, 2001). In this context, we have to found and implement adequate key execution indicators (Kpis) and considerable success factors (Csfs) that are favorable to the separate aspects of the business. There are a consolidate of Kpis that are generally used in my organization:
1. Revenue and profit targets: These are mentioned above.
2. Customer satisfaction: Surveys are sent quarterly to our suppliers and customers to ensure at least 90% buyer wide satisfaction.
3. Stocks modernize and on-time deliveries of goods: adequate stocks are maintained and retrieved from suppliers and deliveries have to be made on time to customers at least 98% of all sales orders.
4. Timely submission of monthly accounting and sales records to head office: The deadline of submission of such reports is usually the 5th of each month, which has to be strictly adhered to.
On a wider basis, such Kpis are also related to Csfs in my organization, which includes the following:
1. Maintaining a salutary position in our markets: This is mentioned above.
2. Supportive top management open to marketing and financing ideas: The directors and senior management have a fortnightly meeting with lower management on possible ideas and brainstorming on ideas and possible financing from banks on determined products.
3. Sufficient funds and resources in place: Funds have to be in place for Lcs, which are converted to trust receipts, which have to be placed within determined tenure, coupled with adequate manpower and technologies for permissible functioning of the organization.
With these Kpis and Csfs in mind, the varied activities of the can be further segregated into smaller teams and activities to supply a more logical flow for great pathology (Bowden et. Al, 2001). In my organization, the sales teams are broken up into smaller groups in fee of varied products for steel and agricultural aspects. This is also done likewise for the finance department, which has smaller teams in fee of receivables, payables and other menagerial functions.
Step 2: Identification of Risks
This process aims to recognize all events, which might influence the club as a whole. In such a scenario, there is a need to recognize all causes and possible situations (Bowden et. Al, 2001). After which, we will tour to link the risks, both threats and opportunities, with key criteria that will have a direct impact on the club (Bowden et. Al, 2001). There is also a requirement to coming these risks with proactive and reactive responses (Bowden et. Al, 2001). There are several tools that can help with identifying risks, namely brainstorming, checklists and judgements based on experience.
In my organization, there are several tools used to recognize risks. For the finance department, there is a quarterly checklist used on separate risks involved, which can comprise the number of tax incurred and tax toll agreed with the tax authorities, the number of receivables and stock updates and how productive their respective turnovers are. Provisions for such items are also raised based on prior experience. For the marketing and operations department, weekly meetings are conducted whereby brainstorming and systems pathology are used to recognize possible risks with regards to competition, changes in prices and tastes of customers as well as the safe-guarding of stocks at our premises. It is further recommended that a goods plan with a goods manager be put in place, with rankings are given to the priority of such risks and the inputs, processes and outputs should be investigated in greater depth (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
It is mentioned that a test shop will be beneficial if there is a high degree of uncertainty about the eventual sales of the new goods as the set in motion date approaches (Cooper, year unknown). My club is currently seeing at possible new sales of liquor and diesel for its overseas markets. However, these possible sales are not carefully new products in the existing markets. With speed and the competing environment being leading facts, a test shop may not be applicable in our scenario (Cooper, year unknown).
In increasing to the set in motion of possible new products, there are several pitfalls in considerations for my organization:
1. Lack of shop orientation. These are possible risks considering insufficient shop pathology and not insight buyer needs and wants.
2. Poor quality of execution. With regards to my organization, the grades or quality of the flammable new products might be filled with deficiencies, hence not meeting customers' needs.
3. Moving too quickly. A too hasty coming to set in motion these products might render too many mistakes in the process and compromise the quality and timing of the promotional activities (Cooper, year unknown).
Step 3: Risk Analysis
This step involves the appraisal of the likelihood and consequence of possible risk events. These are often evaluated using the current controls in place (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Such controls are needed to ensure productive operations, reliable reporting systems and permissible compliance with rules and regulations (Bowden et. Al, 2001). In my organization, controls in place will comprise past records, shop pathology given by traders from separate countries, published literature in the form of accounting and marketing magazines and internal and external auditors' reports.
There are several techniques that are used to found likelihood and consequence, namely structured interviews, multi-disciplinary groups of experts, assessments using questionnaires and computer modelling (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
The decision tree technique can also be used whereby the startling net present value (Npv) of cash flows related with each personel outcome is shown (Vlahos, 2001). This technique is beneficial for the following reasons:
1. It improves our insight of each outcome and makes assumptions more forthcoming.
2. It is beneficial for documenting and communicating thoughts on uncertainty and also helps originate alternatives for great value enhancement.
3. Managers can monitor each stage of the scheme and make standard pathology with regards to decisions made at each point
4. The outputs in terms of startling Npvs generated can be used as possible inputs for projects selection (Vlahos, 2001).
This technique is very recommended for my club in two ways:
1. This can be used in decisions made by the marketing department in terms of which products to fetch for possible markets.
2. The finance department will also find it beneficial in terms of the separate ways of financing (i.e. Direct cash financing, using Lcs or trust receipts) in notice for the building of the trade finance project.
There are two types of risk analysis, generally qualitative and quantitative (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
Qualitative Technique
A qualitative method makes use of words or descriptive scale and comes in the form of a ranking structure, alternating between Rare and practically Certain. Such a method is involved with raking likelihoods and consequences (Bowden et. Al, 2001). With regards to building projects, which can be applicable to my organization, the consequences can range from insignificant (whereby there is no injuries and minimum financial loss), moderate (injuries with curative help required and moderate financial loss) to catastrophic (death with considerable financial loss). Such a qualitative table with varied likelihood and risk levels matrix can be beneficial in the following scenarios:
1. Initial screening guide to recognize possible risks for further analysis.
2. Where the level of risk does not elucidate the time and exertion required for more analysis.
3. Insufficient numerical data, which renders a quantitative pathology useless.
For the qualitative analysis, the management and staff with regards to the risk events at separate levels must work through the risk-ranking matrix. Each likelihood and consequence criteria should be carefully in order to put events in the standard type (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
However, there are several disadvantages related with this technique:
1. It may not be too precise as events within the same type may have substantially separate levels of risk.
2. There may not be a common basis for comparison of risk i.e. On dollar basis or number of deaths.
3. There is no clear justification with regards to the process of 'weighing' risks
4. There could be separate interpretations with regards to the meaning of separate consequences i.e. The word catastrophic can mean a great deal to some people, while others might take it more lightly.
5. It can be difficult to translate the findings from this technique to match that of a quantitative method (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
With these pitfalls mentioned above in mind, I would think that it will be great to reconsider the qualitative technique as more of an first screening exercise which should be used concurrently with the quantitative technique.
Quantitative Technique
This coming takes the goods of likelihood and consequence, with the consequence expressed as an actual variable (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Such a technique is more reliable as it relies on numerical values, with estimates of frequency being made in terms of event frequency (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
There are several drivers of risks, namely, technology, people, systems, organizational factors and external factors (Bowden et. Al, 2001). In my organization, some drivers of risk might comprise how updated my computer versions of accounting and sales systems, the competency and educational levels of the employees, the number of new ideas by lower management standard by higher management and maybe the number of pollution our products might cause to the environment.
The quantitative pathology is further broken down into likelihood and consequence criterias. For the likelihood criteria, it is expressed as a probability instead of frequency, thus ensuring that risks are compared on a similar basis (Bowden et. Al, 2001). With similar small events likely to occur, the likelihood of them occurring can be carefully as one event. With regards to my organization, examples of such similar events might include:
1. 20 deliveries which are not made on time (more than 30 minutes) to customers resulting in losses of ,000 each for communication costs
2. 5 deliveries of wrong grades of products to customers resulting in losses of ,500 for communication and bank charges.
For the consequence criteria, it can be carefully in terms of an event leading to possible death or severe losses i.e. Financial or credit losses. In the case of the two examples for likelihood criteria given above, the related consequence criterias are as follows respectively:
1. Free deliveries made for the next trip.
2. Appropriate discounts given for these batches of products sold.
The consequence criteria can also be expressed quantitatively in terms of non-performance or failure to accomplish determined Kpis, reflecting on the organisation's priorities in accepting varying degrees of risks. In my organisation's case, the free deliveries and discounts given could jeopardize not only the revenue and profit targets, but also in terms of buyer pleasure (which are leading Kpis). As such the consequence criteria can be expressed as the mean or startling value (Bowden et. Al, 2001). This is consistent with the Monte Carlo method, which can be used to fetch the distribution of the scheme or goods value related with trading operations (Vlahos, 2001).
Step 4: Risk Evaluation
Risk appraisal is involved with identifying which risks must be treated and can be calculated using the goods of likelihood and consequence (Bowden et. Al, 2001). The risks can be compared with previously established criteria. separate softwares such as the Monte Carlo approach, the sensitivity pathology and the probability distribution can be used to show the effects of major risks for appraisal (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
Step 5: Treating Risks
There are several methods of treating risks, namely avoidance, accepting, allowance and exchange of risks (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
1. Avoiding risks. In my organization, avoiding such risks would involve maybe not importing very flammable products such as liquor or diesel (which are part of the notice for new products) as part of sales and speculating in foreign exchange fluctuations.
2. Accepting risks. determined risks may be unavoidable. In my organisation's case, we have huge sales transactions in Myanmar, which has just palpate a major soldiery and governmental coup. Hence sales in Myanmar may be volatile. These are possible risks, which are already factored in our enterprise considerations.
3. Reducing risks. Currency fluctuations are imminent when trading with overseas counterparts for my organization. Hence Lcs and hedging are done oftentimes in order to mitigate such risks for products purchased and sold to other countries.
4. Transfer risks. For my organization, this is done in terms of insurance coverage for stocks, which are housed in our premises.
Some other favorite treatment of risks will comprise audit compliance programs, contractual obligations and conditions, preventive maintenance, quality insurance and contingency planning (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Such treatments of risk are also maintained within my organization.
The separate options for treatment of risks should be evaluated and risk treatment plans should be planned and prepared (Bowden et. Al, 2001). Such a plan should reconsider detailed base implementations, risk appraisal in terms of threats and opportunities in terms of priorities and recommended proactive and reactive contingency plans. (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
The risk treatment program and performance plan should comprise the following:
1. The separate duties and responsibilities for implementation of plan. Preferably, the plan should involve a scheme leader and separate members in fee of one aspect of the scheme reporting to the leader.
2. The resources to be utilized.
3. Work breakdown structure for the activities
4. Budget allocation
5. Schedule for implementation
6. Details of the mechanism and frequency for permissible compliance to the treatment program (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
Step 6: Communicating and Consulting
For this stage, stakeholders need to have a common insight of the scheme or goods situation. Consultation from stakeholders as well as experts is required for great opinions, with communication needed for great coordination (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
Such an coming is required for several reasons:
1. To prove that the process is conducted in a systematic manner.
2. To supply records of risks and permissible organizational records.
3. To supply relevant decision makers with a permissible risk management and performance plan for approval and implementation.
4. To supply accountability.
5. To facilitate further monitoring and review.
6. To supply audit trail.
7. To share information (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
This article should comprise the following:
1. Executive summary
2. Scope of project
3. Methodology of study
4. Contextual issues of the scheme including the restraints
5. Success factors chosen
6. Kpis for each success factor chosen
7. Target and tolerance
8. Any assumptions
9. Top ten risks across all Csfs for the scheme or goods plan
10. Vulnerabilities in phases of the project
11. Responsibilities for managing risks in phases
12. Primary and secondary drivers triggering each risk
13. Existing controls
14. Tables and figures (Bowden et. Al, 2001)
Step 7: Monitoring and Reviewing
For the final step, there is a need to found and apply mechanisms to ensure ongoing describe of risks i.e. scheme leaders should supply a consistent modernize of the current situations (Bowden et. Al, 2001). The effectiveness of the risk management process should be consistently monitored and reviewed (Bowden et. Al, 2001).
Conclusion
Risk should be managed on an active basis. Risk management will involve identification of areas of high risks ahead of time, interpreted to the many degree possible, with the best technical or marketing talent allocated to the problem, have the problems solved as swiftly as possible, and be in case,granted with a contingency plan in case something cannot be resolved (Smith and Reinertsen, year unknown).
Reference List
Bowden, A., Lane, M. And Martin, J. (2001) Triple bottom Line Risk Management. Wiley.
Cooper. (year unknown). New Products: Problems and Pitfalls. Pg 22-49.
Cooper. (year unknown). To test or Not to Test. Pg 123-129.
Smith, P. And Reinertsen, D. (year unknown). Managing Risk. Pg 207-21.
Vlahos, K. (2001). Tooling up for Risky Decisions. Pg 47-52.
Risk administration Within an Organisation